September 2008 Archives

20080929 FT - FTfm - Directors dealings database proves valuable.pdf

http://www.inside-analytics.com/

Concept: Insiders are intimate with the company they work for, thus their trades factor in all information (public & private).  After washing out boring annual buy/sells and other life event based trades, its is understandable that insider trades would be a good predictor of direction, and have a degree of reliability.

Description of logic from weekly top ten (http://www.inside-analytics.com/2008-09-29-Weekly-Top-10-EN.html)

"About directors (corporate insiders):
Typically, directors (insiders) buy on weakness and sell on strength. Empirical evidence shows that directors' purchases tend to outperform the market while directors' sells tend to slightly underperform the market. Under certain circumstances, purchases or sells can lead to a strong price reaction. Directors' deals potentially convey private information to the market that has not already been discounted. In order to evaluate the conviction behind these transactions, 2iQ Research recommends to check the value of the trade, the hierarchical position of the insider, other dealings within the company, and also the news-flow."

DOC080929091744.pdf

Too bad noone got a snap of the run on the vending machine...

A bit of comic relief in the gloom of the street.

DOC080929091620.pdf

An interesting blip on the Megabank models fashionability.

Japan's asset bubble is just finally winding down after ten lost years, as a the US bubble has popped.

Will Japanese banks make the most of the timing? 

I wonder will pop out of Nomura and MUFG's $250mio and $9bio fukubukuro's (福袋)...

But whatever does, Nomura paid considerably less...

FTfm - Government lies and squishy ethics, Sept 8, 2008 - DOC080916115012.pdf

Weeden & Co, LP. - wellen @ weeden, Feb 21, 2006 - 0804welling022106.pdf

Shadow Government Statistics - http://www.shadowstats.com/

The US is clearly in recession, the US dollar is highly inflationary, and the BLS and BEA, both apparent mouthpieces of the administration, are still trying to blow smoke up everyone's ass.

Seriously losing faith in fiat currency.

Long nominal dollars? I'm short, and thinking about leveraging.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers - Profile

http://www.jimrogers.com/ - Jim's Website

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Jim+Rogers - Jim's Commentary, Bloomy, CNN, CNBC, etc.

Again, maybe I'm the only person that hasn't heard of Jim Rogers, but his commentary is incredibly refreshing, inquisitive, and anchored.  He is partnered with George Soros in Quantum Fund (which is now the Quantum Endowment fund), a fund with a colorful past.  In 2007 he moved to Singapore where his daughter is tutored in Mandarin Chinese.

"Moving to Singapore and Dubai now is like moving to New York City in 1908." "If you were smart in 1807 you moved to London, if you were smart in 1907 you moved to New York City, and if you are smart in 2007 you move to Asia."

Current commentary;

- Federal Reserve will most likely fail as a central bank, becoming the third US central bank to fail in history.

- US Govt is heading for a credit downgrade taking on Freddie and Fannie's multi-trillion dollar gaurantee guarantee liabilities, not having the avaible resources will continue to print driving M3 (money supply) up, and turning the US Dollar towards massive debasement/devaluation.

- Anyone that holds US dollars needs to get into real assets to protect value, commodities, metals, fuel, etc, and that factoring in inflation gold should be around $2,000, so at $800-$1,000, gold is still looking very cheap.

DOC080904204655.pdf 

DOC080903122146.pdf

DOC080903122412.pdf

"For those financials with capital, it's going to be a great five years, once we get through this crisis,"